The site is cautious in its picks, selecting just three first-round upsets: No. 10 Texas over 7 Nevada, No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas, and No. 9 Florida State over No. 8 Missouri. It is picking No. 4 Gonzaga to upend No. 1 Xavier in the Final 16.

But Five Thirty Eight is known for producing probabilities, not just straight picks. It is worthwhile when constructing your own bracket to know that while No. 1 seed Villanova has a 50 percent chance of making the Final Four, Virginia is at 47 percent, Kansas at 31 and Xavier at only 18.

• Alex Kirshner at SB Nation circles four lower-seeded teams and says one or two will pull off the upset. Those are No. 12 Davidson over Kentucky, No. 12 New Mexico State over Clemson, No. 12 Murray State over West Virginia and No. 11 San Diego State over Houston.

He also says No. 15 Lipscomb could stun North Carolina:

A 15 seed beats a 2 about once every two or three years. The last was Middle Tennessee against Michigan State in 2016, and we’re coming due for another shock soon. Lipscomb — from the same Atlantic Sun that spawned Sweet 16 No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 — is another potential chaos team. The Bisons love to run, and they enter the tournament ranked No. 5 nationally in adjusted tempo. They haven’t played anyone like North Carolina, obviously, but another Lipscomb strength has been defensive rebounding. Given that the Heels’ best strength is their offensive rebounding, this one’s worth monitoring.

• At Bleacher Report, Kerry Miller ranks all 68 teams in order, from Villanova to North Carolina Central.

Villanova has no ceiling. It’s just a question of how long the Wildcats can go without having a bad shooting night, and whether that happens to coincide with a subpar defensive effort. When they won the title in 2016, they only had one poor performance from the perimeter, but they defended like mad to beat Kansas in that game. There’s no reason they couldn’t do it again.

• More data crunching. Ken Pomeroy is a well-respected college ranker. Like many others, he has Villanova and Virginia at the top of his list. He also has No. 2 Duke over Kansas and No. 2 North Carolina over Xavier.

NCAA Tournament: Printable Men’s Bracket

N.C.A.A. Men’s Tournament Bracket

For first round upsets, he likes No. 10 Butler (56 percent chance to win), No. 10 Oklahoma (slightly more than 50 percent) and No. 9 Florida State (51 percent);.

• Another computer ranker, Jeff Sagarin, also has Villanova and Virginia 1-2.

• Those V teams dominate the selections at the Athletic also, with three of five picking Virginia and two Villanova to win it all.

Amazingly, four of the five like No. 12 New Mexico State not only to beat No 5 Clemson, but also No. 4 Auburn and make the Final 16.

• Want a winner a little more “off the wall” than Villanova or Virginia? Nick Birdsong at the Sporting News picks No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Michigan to make the Final Four, and then has No. 4 Arizona beating all of them, thanks to freshman Deandre Ayton.

• A roundup of eight selectors assembled by CBS finds three selecting a No. 2 seed, Duke, to win in all and two going for Villanova, with one each for Virginia, North Carolina and Michigan State.

Josh Nagel, a SportsLine analyst said:

I think Duke has the best starting five in the country, and the most balance since it last won the title in 2015. Duke appears to have a manageable road, since Kansas has overachieved but I don’t see the Jayhawks as a real title contender. Of course Duke has to avoid foul trouble, fatigue and serious injuries. But Blue Devils appear to be the toughest out in a single-elimination format, and I’d like their chances against any team from the opposing brackets in the final.

(Nagel also likes No. 11 San Diego State, No. 10 Providence and No. 10 Butler, and says the winner of the Arizona State-Syracuse play-in game will beat No. 6 TCU.)

• In Las Vegas, the lines are up, and most books are settling on Villanova as the early favorite. But Duke is favored in the Midwest, not Kansas, and No. 3 Michigan is the top pick in the West, not No. 1 Xavier or No. 2 North Carolina.

The better seeds are the favorites pretty much across the board, as you might expect, with just one clear exception. No. 10 Butler is a 1-point pick over No. 7 Arkansas.

Believe it or not, some confident folks have already filled in their brackets. Over at Yahoo, these early birds have tabbed a couple of upsets: No. 10 Texas (56 percent of them) and No 10 Butler (54 percent). In later rounds, the group likes No. 2 North Carolina to make the Final Four rather than Xavier. The most popular pick to win it all is Virginia (25 percent) followed by Villanova (17 percent) and then second-seeded Duke, perhaps following the well-known theory “Duke always wins.”

The most popular teams at Yahoo, by seed: 1, Virginia, 2. Duke, 3. Michigan State, 4. Arizona, 5. Kentucky 6. Florida, 7. Arkansas, 8. Missouri 9. N.C. State, 10.Texas 11. Loyola Ill., 12. New Mexico State 13. Marshall 14. Stephen F. Austin 15. Georgia State 16. Penn.

There are almost as many opinions out there as there are tournament permutations. But only two brackets matter in the end: the one you fill out and the correct one. Hope they match this year — good luck!

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